Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for severe weather at Deutscher Wetterdienst

Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for severe weather at Deutscher Wetterdienst Reinhold Hess Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 473–487, https://doi.org10.5194/npg-27-473-2020, 2020 Forecasts of ensemble systems are statistically aligned to synoptic observations at DWD in order to provide support for warning decision management. Motivation and design consequences for extreme and rare meteorological events are presented. Especially for probabilities of severe wind gusts global logistic parameterisations are developed that generate robust statistical forecasts for extreme events, while local characteristics are preserved.